Changing idea

After making tons of calculations the last days I eventually came to the conclusion that I am not going for SNE till May. The effort is simple too high and it is not even sure I get there (read last blog-entry). Instead I am going to mix sites from February on and grind €50s and up till cash-game is introduced. Remaining January I’m going to grind for a promotion at GD.

It wasn’t a easy decision. I’m so sick of having zero constant in my life due to my inability to make decisions and stand to them that I really wanted to pass up on this. Last time I wrote about me trying to advance me and now changing plans is exactly what I shouldn’t do. However, I think this time I have very good reasons to abandon the old plans.

First of all and the most important aspect, security! I’m not guaranteed to make Supernova Elite. There are three possible scenarios; I fail to achieve SNE and lose more than €20k (!); From now on to May I will have a miserable life and reach SNE; and the most unrealistic scenario is that I am going to reach SNE without any further problems and the traffic won’t collapse (or I do make enough VPPs with cash-game). Furthermore Stars.it does not have a concierge-service and probably does not offer one what is a huge downside. That does not only mean that I cannot buy in with FPPs into hotels and tournaments in Vegas, I also cannot get the 3.2m cash concierge reward for almost $54k. Using the standard cash bonus I lose way more than $10k. Given the fact that the government gets 33% of the rake I totally understand that they can’t afford it, but regardless, for me this is just not that highly profitable. I’m not saying making SNE is a stupid idea; it is just not worth the pain to do it in 5.5 months. What bugs me a little bit is the fact that I already made 50k VPPs. I was totally in pace and I could easily keep up with it. I felt really well doing this and yeah, believe me or not, I even had fun when I played 35tables up. Regarding to my Vegas-Summer-Plans, I am not sure if I can reach 70-80k€ so easily as with SNE (-1% w/ 1250k VPPs), but I will certainly not sit around and do nothing. And even if I do only make 50k than I’m not disappointed, I will skip a couple of donkaments and still go to Vegas. I even can imagin not to go there but than again I have no real goals in my life and I do not know what to life for and what to do. Whatsoever, I think adjusting goals downwards is no shame and we all know life and especially poker is very little plannable.

Anyways, I’ve already decided (fast as I am) what to do this remaining January. Giocodigitale has for this month their SNG ranking promotion doubled! And that is not enough, they also already had 5 days of 2x Rakepoints. That is great for me, because all the regs massively spammed games the last couple of days and their ROI obviously suffered (and thus their points in the ranking won’t be great). I’ll be playing no more than 12 tables and try to achieve a high ROI. I have no idea what a good ROI 12tabling 50-100s on this site is, I had 5-6% last year in April-May playing exactly 12 tables these stakes (and I started on this site with almost 50buyins down). The regs, even if they are still bad probably improved and I was told by someone how plays regularly on both sites that on Stars.it are more fishes. Honestly I have no idea what ROI is achievable but I hope with just 12 tables and my new A-Game (next paragraph) 5% is realistically on 50s and 100s combined. The fact that I abandon Stars for this month does not mean that I am not continuing playing my 8-11 hours a day. I’ll be definitely grinding tons of hours and I expect me to play about 3k SNGs what should net me about 11-12k profit with rakeback. Hopefully I’ll be running good and ship the €100 leader board for €8k. In case that does not work I’d like to win the small one for €4k. All joking aside, when I do run with about 5% I think I’ll be under the top10-15 and gives me a little bit extra money.

Talking about A-Game before, I already said last posting that I really feel good at the moment and that is not only visible in the results I had in the last past few days (I shipped also a EPT Deauville seat but sold it). I can focus really hard on something, after a couple of minutes I calm down and sometimes I even fall in kind of a rigor and I feel really light and free. Time seems to pass by very slowly and playing 40 tables at once is not really stressful at all. Well now I guess I’m even weirder for the standard reader but I feel like I have to write it down. Haven’t the right people to talk about this stuff but I feel good about it and I want to communicate that!

To conclude my Stars 3th-7thJanuary graph, 3k€ total wins (with rakeback and minus multis). 30-40 tabling, red line = A-I EV (<3 goodrun), green line = actual winnings, blue line = rakeback+reload bonus)

As always, stay tuned

-tobi